How To Use Sharpr

Quick start

1. 1

   Open the board. Head to the NBA or MLB odds screen — every prop shows the best price across your books, with the value side’s edge in green.

2. 2

   Find an edge, then pressure-test it. Sort by edge, then open the player’s research card and the line-movement view to see the context behind the number before you trust it.

3. 3

   Run the checklist and bet. Confirm the lineup, weather, and playing time (see the checklist below), then place your bet at your sportsbook.

How Sharpr works

Four surfaces do most of the work. Here’s what each one shows and where to find it — or take the interactive tour above to see them live.

Understanding the projections

Our projections are created in-house and are primarily run by SBK, though we have other experienced NBA and MLB minds helping behind the scenes. While we’re very confident in the numbers we release, it’s important to remember that projections are not guaranteed outcomes — far from it. A projection is simply a median outcome, one point in a distribution, and there can sometimes be a wide range of outcomes for a particular player. You can think about the projection as the most likely outcome.

The bettors who have the most success with tools like these are the ones who use them as part of their process — not those blindly betting edges without considering any other context. In MLB, for example, we weigh weather into our projections, but something like the potential for an in-game delay — which could cut a pitcher’s night short earlier than expected — is tougher to factor in. It’s also possible that differences between our projected lineup and the confirmed lineup will impact a pitcher’s projection. Most of the time those changes are small, but it’s still worth considering whether a lineup may have some volatility if you’re betting into markets like strikeouts or pitcher walks before lineups are confirmed.

In the NBA, there may be edges showing up on a player at release that are actually far less appealing than they appear — maybe there’s uncertainty around the starting lineup, or maybe someone in the bench rotation is questionable and could lead to more minutes for others. Those are things worth watching for. We provide projection notes for the NBA that shed light on those situations (they’re more common in the NBA given how injuries work), but again, if you’re willing to put in a little work, you’re more likely to have success than someone just blindly betting positive edges.

Choosing the right edges

Each prop on the odds screen includes an edge percentage, shown in green. The edge sits next to the side we show value on.

If you’re somewhat new to MLB and NBA prop betting, or you’re relying heavily on our analysis, it’s safest to stick to double-digit edges as a general rule of thumb — without getting too into the weeds, those edges have performed well over a pretty long stretch. There’s always more context to consider before placing a bet, but this isn’t a bad approach for newer users getting their feet wet in the NBA and MLB prop markets. Betting edges of 10% or higher is a decent way to make positive-expected-value bets without needing to discern too much about the price or market.

It’s also worth considering adverse selection. If we showed a 10% edge on something at release and it’s still sitting at 10% at first pitch — or has gone up to 15% — we’d be a little more wary that the edge is as strong as it appears. The strongest edges tend to move the quickest. Time in the market will help you understand some of the nuances each market can offer.

Weighing different markets

Pitching outs (which we dig into in the MLB section below) isn’t the only market with some art involved.

Markets like earned runs and pitcher walks — or 3PT makes, blocks, and steals in the NBA — typically involve smaller numbers, so a relatively minor adjustment in the projection can flip an edge. If a pitcher is initially projected to allow 1.4 walks and that number rises to 1.5 when the opposing lineup comes in a little more walk-heavy than projected, that can have a sizable impact on the edge. Timing is something to consider.

A few things that matter specifically for baseball — pitching outs and the key numbers, plus a pre-bet checklist that leans heavily on lineups, weather, and how a starter is likely to be used.

Pitching outs & the key numbers

Pitching outs is a little more complex to model and simulate than most markets. Part of that is the nature of how baseball is played: a team records three outs in the field, then comes to bat, and a starter comes out of the game naturally. It’s therefore more likely for starters to land on 15 or 18 outs than on 16 or 17 — in other words, more common to land on a clean 5 or 6 innings than 5⅓ or 5⅔. That can be tough for most simulators to handle. While we do account for this nuance in the pitching outs market, it’s still worth weighing the key numbers (mainly 15 and 18), and considering things like bullpen availability will help you shape a stronger opinion. If a right-handed starter is on the hill and struggles against lefties, that may matter more when the opposing team has available left-handed relievers for the third time through the order — that team is probably more likely to have a quicker hook than a team with a taxed bullpen and no available lefty relievers.

Before you bet: run through this checklist

So you’ve reviewed the projections, found the top edges, and considered the nuance of the market you’re betting into. Before you click BET, run through these:

• Is the lineup confirmed? Pitching props can shift once lineups come out — a few strikeout-prone hitters in the starting nine could spoil an under edge on a strikeout prop. This tends to matter less for pitching outs and most for pitcher walks and strikeouts. There’s some risk in betting without confirmed lineups, but always waiting for confirmation will lead to you missing the best of the number a decent chunk of the time — so it’s fine to bet at release, as long as you’re aware of the potential downside.
• Is weather an issue? Be aware of the forecast. A chance of rain adds risk for pitchers; wind blowing in or out can significantly affect scoring in certain parks; and temperature always matters. We account for these things, but in-game delay risk is harder to model, so do your due diligence. Kevin Roth on Twitter is a great source for MLB weather info.
• Can I trust the playing time? Some players are more volatile than others. A young starter may have a short leash, while a veteran could push 100 pitches. The increased use of openers — pitchers who “start” the game but are used like relievers — adds another layer of uncertainty. Innings limits on certain starters (more of a late-season thing) can increase complexity, but can also present strong edges.
• How rested is this team? If a club is coming off an extra-inning game where every reliever was used, that probably affects the starter’s leash. Conversely, heading into an off-day, the leash could be shorter, since relievers can recover with no game tomorrow. A lot of that is context-dependent, though — Cristopher Sánchez isn’t going to be treated the same way as Andrew Painter, for example.